Newport's
book is based on hundreds of thousands of interviews Gallup has
conducted in recent years.
He
reports: “...80% of all Americans are Christians, and 95% of
all Americans who have a religion are Christian.” (21) Also,
54% of Americans are Protestant. The Protestant portion of the U. S.
population is shrinking. More and more Americans are going to a
nondenominational Christian identity. Because of this and other
factors, traditional Protestant denominations will continue to
shrink.
He
notes the health benefits of being religious, the interaction of
religion and politics, and how the degree of religiousness affects
culture.
What
about the future? Studies show that people get more religious as they
age. If the baby boomers follow that pattern, the future looks good
for religion. However, “If baby boomers keep the same relatively
low level of religiousness they have now as they age, then older
America is going to be a lot less religious than it is now.” (120)
The
determining factor may be the explanation for older people being more
religious. It may be the generational explanation, such as moving
through the stages of live. It may be the cohort perspective –
older Americans are more religious because of the circumstances in
which they grew up. (134)
Newport
believes the evidence points to a generational explanation. “It is
likely that baby boomers will become more religious as they age, just
like those they are replacing.” (139)
I
do hope Newport is right. The future of religion in America certainly
depends upon whether the baby boomers do become more religious as
they age or not.
Also,
I wonder about the claim that 80% of all Americans are Christians.
Perhaps they identify themselves as Christians, but would they be
called evangelicals? If so many Americans are Christians, why is
America heading in the direction it is?
For
me, something just does not ring true with Newport's optimistic hope
for the future. If you'd like to read a book that I think is more
realistic, try The Great Evangelical Recession. See my review
of that book here.
Frank
Newport is Gallup Editor-in-Chief and a leading public opinion
analyst. He has been a professor, a partner in a market research
firm, and now Gallup's chief pollster for more than 20 years.
Gallup
Press, 280 pages.
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